Nigeria’s clean energy transition investment agenda may face significant headwinds as global uncertainties deepen over the proposed rollback of the United States’ Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), experts have warned.

The development is already sending ripples across emerging markets, with implications for Nigeria’s clean energy investment flows, technology access, and long-term renewable energy goals.

The IRA, signed into law in 2022, earmarked up to $1 trillion in subsidies and tax incentives to accelerate domestic clean energy production and scale global climate finance.

Its proposed reversal championed by conservative factions in the U.S. has raised concerns over investment retraction and weakening momentum for the global energy transition.

Energy expert and Partner at Bloomfield Law Practice, Dr Ayodele Oni, said the rollback could erode access to affordable clean energy technologies in emerging markets like Nigeria, with direct implications for local manufacturers and developers.

“A proposed rollback on the Act will lead to reduced access to clean energy technologies, which is crucial for emerging markets like Nigeria. There will be an increase in the cost of these technologies, thus making it challenging for Nigeria to attain its energy transition goals. A rollback of the Act could also affect climate financing globally. This affects Nigeria as the energy transition requires about $1.9 trillion in investments,” he said.

According to Oni, the National Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policy (NREEEP), which underpins Nigeria’s transition goals, is heavily reliant on international capital flows and technology transfer.

“A reduction in investments will further delay project timelines for rural electrification and solar mini-grids under the policy. Clean energy will also become less affordable, particularly in rural areas. Without investments, there will also be reduced local content and manufacturing development of renewable energy appliances, which the NREEEP aims to promote,” he noted.

Dr Oni also called for innovative public-private partnerships to mitigate external risks and ensure continuity of clean energy projects.

“Another implication is that innovation will be slowed down as costs for production and manufacturing will be on the rise due to lack of funding, slow sale, and tax credits. The ripple effect this has on Nigeria, which imports these technologies, is a further increment in the cost of importing them. And where the technology is expensive to import, its availability will be affected and reduced as the capital required to purchase has significantly increased,” he added.

Professor Dayo Ayoade, a Professor of Energy Transitions, Extractives and Governance Law at the University of Lagos, offered a broader geopolitical perspective, warning that the U.S. policy shift has “muddied the waters” for international climate consensus.

“The U.S. is the largest economy in the world, and the U.S., under Donald Trump, is pushing back, is going back to drill, baby drill, meaning that we want to start to produce a lot of crude oil and gas and lay less emphasis on renewable and less emphasis on clean technology. That could impact us because it has muddied the waters,” Ayoade said.